Simulation of Weather Impacts on the Wholesale Electricity Market

This paper investigates the weather-driven performance of electricity markets in the operational time frame. Employing the probability distribution fitting approaches, weather impacts on power generation and electricity demand are modeled and assessed through processing large volume of historical data sets. Several novel weather-impact indices are proposed in this paper to evaluate the vulnerability of the generation as well as the sensitivity of the loads in response to given weather conditions. By incorporating the stochastic weather behavior into power generation and electricity demand modeling, as well as asset reliability constraints, the uncertain aspects of the market operation, such as system costs, locational marginal prices, congestion, reserve price, etc., can be well evaluated by the use of Point Estimation Method (PEM). Numerical experiments on a modified IEEE-RTS system are eventually conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and demonstrate the necessity of weather-impact considerations in the electricity market decision making.